This Is How China’s Regions Fare In Reporting Fake GDP Data



After a spate of admissions to fabricating data, doubts about the accuracy of provincial-level figures are throwing a shadow on the remarkable stability of national output.

Here’s SWS’s scoring of the credibility of local data — the lower the score, the better the data:

Province Score:
Hebei 11
Shanghai 21
Fujian 27
Gansu 35
Jiangxi 11
Anhui 21
Sichuan 29
Beijing 39
Shaanxi 12
Jilin 22
Hubei 30
Tianjin 40
Liaoning 14
Ningxia 23
Heilongjiang 31
Shanxi 40
Zhejiang 16
Henan 24
Xinjiang 31
Jiangsu 45
Hunan 17
Guangxi 24
Qinghai 33
Chongqing 46
Shandong 18
Yunnan 25
Hainan 34
Guangdong 20
Inner Mongolia 27
Guizhou 34

The analysis rests on spotting the difference between local authorities’ reporting of fiscal revenue before and after a 2016 tax reform that made it harder to inflate income. A second factor focuses on what local governments say about their debt obligations, with some potentially under-reporting what they owe.

The head of the national statistics bureau said Thursday the government is is examining cases of fake economic figures produced by some regions, though fraud hasn’t impaired the quality of national statistics.


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